Why I didn't win the 2025 Scrabble Players Championship
An uncle of mine has a saying: “Así como doy, exijo” (Just as I give, I demand). For many years I have had some misplaced sense of pride, or whatever it is, that has prevented me from seeking help from top Scrabble players in order to improve my game. To be honest, even though I own Kenji’s books, I have yet to read them. The large majority of my strategy, if you can call it that, comes from a combination of playing many sessions against Ira Cohen back in like 2006 at a chicken restaurant in Santa Monica, and hearing his thoughts on quadrants and right angles and defense, as well as furious Quackling of my club and tournament games.
At Nationals this past summer I had a group dinner with Mina, the kids, and Kenji, Ed, and Skylar (at a top-notch Korean BBQ place, Koho), and I said something along the lines of “ugh I wish someone could tell me what I’m doing wrong” and Kenji said “we’ve been telling you you can ask us for ages!” Maybe I will take people up on that, as a payment for all the apps I’ve built through the years. I remember a while back someone beat me with a bingo and they thanked me because they had just learned it on Aerolith. Hmph.
Woogles Collections
So, I built a whole new feature in Woogles (well, Claude Code did), called Collections, which lets me group all of my Nationals games into a single collection so that people can view the games and comment on moves easily.
You can find my SPC 2025 collection here: https://woogles.io/collections/9c107ced-3e8b-46e5-83b6-873f0342e1d8/chapter/1.
But, before you do that
I’ve analyzed all 31 games and have determined why I didn’t win Nationals. As suspected, I continue to make errors that I shouldn’t. So, it turns out that many of the positions I do want to ask about for the large part involve a lot more subtlety, when compared to the magnitude of the game-losing errors I made, which I will detail below.
However, I think the commentary of other top experts will still be a positive for the site and at least for me to learn deeper strategical concepts for when I finally stop making these large, dumb errors.
Game-losing errors
I went 16-15 at SPC. At my last 7 Nationals I’d gone 18-13 or 17-14. I’ve picked up studying a bit and thought I’ve improved my game overall, so I did have high hopes for this tournament, but I made a significant number of outright game-losing errors. I am laying them out here. At the bottom of the post will be the more strategically subtle positions where I have questions.
Error 1, Game 3 vs Karl Higby
I spent about 5 minutes and could not find the 3-3 in this position. It wins the game close to 100% of the time. But at the very least OH or IMPORT are significantly better than my bingo of aTROPHI(A).
Error 2 vs Ian Weinstein, game 11
I somehow played 3C VOW here, instead of (R)EWOVEN, which wins around 85% of the time. Still, VOW wins 80%. But I think I win this game if I play REWOVEN here. I didn’t even generate it.
Error 3 vs Peter Schwartzman, game 14
This game was very educational and probably the one I will most closely study in the future as I try to figure out how to improve. At the end of the game, and before analyzing it, I remembered it as an essentially unwinnable game, in which I thought I did the best to win but was never going to. That first impression was very wrong. I made several inaccuracies throughout the game, but none as bad as this one:
The bag is:
A DD G II J L V X Y
Peter has just played (T)ENtORIA and I’m down 312-350. It would never have occurred to me that emptying the bag could win this game. Yet N1 COBIA making QAT wins 39% of games; as it turns out, it would have won this particular game rather easily, since I drew AGI after my play of K10 BA(N)C, and Macondo’s exhaustive pre-endgame solver gives a win for a draw of AGI + any fourth tile.
Here, the key is actually thinking about the bag and board and trying to figure out the basic theme that emptying the bag might actually work. The bag is clunky and if he drew too many of those tiles after his bingo, he’s not only not going to go out in 2 but also won’t score enough, there aren’t too many great places for the power tiles!
Error 4 vs Jon Shreve, game 22
Bag is
D G I NN OO V
It’s not like I played the rest of this game super well or anything; notably, I steam-played BIO(F)UELS instead of literally taking an extra second to find (L)IBELOUS, which probably would have made a big difference later on. Another notable error is in the turn right before this one, where I kept AAES? for 14 pts instead of keeping AEIS? for 7 pts, because I thought I needed the extra points, but AEIS? bingos so much more.
The best move here is obviously FAN(T)ASiE, which I completely missed, despite thinking of the FANT- prefix. It wins 50% of the time, including with the tile that was in the bag (the I). The main reason I missed it is because I was super low on time as always, since I spent most of the game volatilizing the board (wtf is going on in the top? lol) and trying to figure out how to claw my way to a win. Then it was handed to me and I couldn’t capitalize.
Almost game-losing errors
There are also a few errors that cost me a TON of win percentage:
Game 3 vs Karl Higby
hYPOGEU(M) gives me a great chance of winning. I think that find is ridiculously hard. Yet, when I look up HYPOGEUM in my WordVault, it turns out I had solved it 11 times in a row, after missing it the first time. I have no doubt top players would find that play rather quickly and it has to do with drilling blank bingos, which I need to do.
Game 4 vs Marty Gabriel
In this position I played SPUD(G)ING*, after he just challenged CHET(AH). Instead of doing something normal like PUDG(Y). Not quite a game winner, since I’m at a deficit, but it wins close to 50% of the time as opposed to passing and losing a turn.
Game 7 vs Kenneth Rubin
In this position, the bingo BLATTeD wins around 46% of the time. I chickened out on it, didn’t want to bet the game on it, and made a horrendous move instead that basically never wins.
Game 14 vs Peter Schwartzman
I talked a bit about this game above.
The bag consists of:
? AAAA B C DD E G IIII J L N OO R U V X Y
In this position, I have a very good chance (85%) of drawing an A or an I for Q(U)AFF/Q(U)IFF for 56 if I play three tiles. Instead of figuring this out, I lamented being so close to those plays and instead played M(U)FF. The best play here is likely ME(E)T off the O in TRUSTORS. It won’t always work, and I might not be happy if he blocks the U, but it’s worth the try.
Game 17 vs Noah Berger
I’ll give myself a little grace here for not finding MILLE(PE)DS, but it’s the kind of play I need to find to cash at a tournament like Nationals. My chances of winning after it are roughly 38%. M(E)LD only wins ~22%.
(Also, notice the misplacement of one of my two opening bingos the whole tourney of NIOBITE, which allowed him to double-double through it)
Game 26 vs David Spargo
Here, the best move is certainly NOT to play DOPESTER/SIALOIDS* for 0 pts. I thought I had a decent chance of getting away with it, instead he insta-challenged and I never drew a bingo and lost the game. If I play something like TO(W)ED or (W)ED I have a roughly 67% chance of winning the game.
The math of losing games
I would say I had 4 almost certain wins that I turned into losses, the ones highlighted above. There are 6 other near-game-losers, let’s turn that into 1-2 won games if I play the right move, accounting for randomness and the fact that I repeated a couple of games. That would be 20 to 21 wins, easily enough for top 5.
Of course, if I do better I’ll play harder competition, but I’ve historically “held my own” against the top 10 of this tournament. Instead, I only played one single person rated higher than me the entire event while watching jealously at them play each other all tournament long on the top tables from table 12 or whatever.
Your help with subtler positions
I have highlighted above all the egregious errors I made in the tournament (there’s probably a couple more in some won games). But there are a number more plays that I am not sure about, that could be relatively egregious, but I don’t know how to think about these positions or how to maximize my win percentages. I humbly ask for top experts to take a look at the following positions, and comment directly on them with your Woogles account. Please let me know:
- What you think the best play is,
- Most importantly, why you think it’s the best play,
- And any tips you have for me about how to come up with this play in this situation
Every position below will have a picture and a link to comment:
Position 1 vs Noah Goldstein
Noah just played ARV(O). I am up 183-141 and have a decent rack. I played 4C LIB, which seems wrong. Should I play FAB/BAL? Is this better? Why?
Position 2 vs Randy Hersom
Randy just played (F)UTZ. I am up 185-156. Should I play M(U)G at the bottom left? I played MEG L6 and although I kept a worse leave, I ended up blocking a bingo and drew a bingo next turn and cruised to a win. However, I want to know when it’s right to make plays like M(U)G.
Position 3 vs Marty Gabriel
I spent enough time on this move that it seems worth asking about. Marty just bingoed with CLER(G)IES and I’m down by 80 pts. Is there any way to figure out what gives me the best chance of winning? Sim says ZIRCON but I don’t fully understand why.
Position 4 vs Kevin Fraley
I’m up by 7 pts and opponent just played LUNATI(C).
This is one of the positions I wondered most about through my bad Nationals performance. Should I stress out about all the open lanes? I couldn’t think of a good enough play to deal with them and eventually just took the equity play of GIF at the bottom left. But those lanes stay open every turn until I deal with them, and he ended up bingoing there.
Position 5 vs Kenneth Rubin
Opponent just played SO(Y) at the bottom left. I am up by 54 pts. Do I play GRI(G)RI here? GLORIA? Something else? I don’t know how to weigh the different factors here at all.
Position 6 vs Timothy Bottorff
I am up 282-223. Opponent just played KA(L)E. Should I play QUILL here? How do I know when it’s right to hold the Q? Macondo liked 3C PRELI(M) or J10 PIER. Opponent ended up quickly bingoing to my L in QUILL.
Position 7 vs Peter Schwartzman
Peter just played WEARI(ER) and I’m down 67-121 because like 50 people opened with a bingo against me this tournament. Why does UN(W)OVE not do as well as L2 VETO here? I spent a long time on this play and then when I found UN(W)OVE I was relieved because I thought it was clearly best!
Position 8 vs Noah Berger
Yet another youngish person who beat me. Basically if you’re a youngish dude and you play me at Nationals, you immediately win. This is another play that still sticks in my mind and that I spent way too long on. Opponent just played SOVIETs and I’m down 159-220. I spent too long debating between SIG and SIGIL. In the end, I thought that playing SIGIL would result in giving up too many points with the Z, J and a bunch of 4-pointers unseen. It seemed too easy to be down by 100 the next turn. How do I talk myself into playing SIGIL, which I think is correct?
Position 9 vs Jonathan Lindh
Jonathan played X(ED) and I’m up by 6 pts on this closed board. For this move I remember thinking I have no idea what to do so I just played PE at the bottom left (but after wasting a ton of time). Maybe that’s fine? Just score as much as I can without opening a new lane?
Position 10 vs Ed de Guzman
(Ignore the opening phony…)
Do you sacrifice 7 pts here to play (M)ALPOSED instead of SEPALOID? His last play was SER(E)D so I was pretty sure he kept something like RS. Why or why not?
Position 11 vs Mike Baron
Mike just played AHOLD.
Bag is pretty consonant heavy (5 vowels, 15 consonants).
? A C F G II K L M N O Q RR SS U V W Y
I really think I need to keep scoring here, but is AFOOT nuts?
Position 12 vs Froilan Mendoza
Opponent just played 6B JOES. Is MACHO wrong? Why does Macondo prefer FACT?
Position 13 vs Karl Higby
How do you know when it’s right to play through vs exchange here? I was set to exchange but really didn’t want to, and when I spotted OMEGA I thought that was the play.
Position 14 vs Karl Higby
My opponent just bingoed with TUNDRAS. I need to win this game to cash. Why does N8 ROOSER sim best and how on Earth do I talk myself into that play?
Position 15 vs Sam Kaplan
Finally, our final position where I ask for help.
What do I do after a play like WADI? He didn’t seem super happy to be playing it, and it didn’t scream a strong leave. I kinda had a focus lapse and decided to just play VEGA, I’m not going to cash anyway and it looks best. To a leave of EEI however he drew DEIFIES and after a few more turns I’ve basically lost the game.
OK fine, things I did right.
I should probably have a few plays that I liked here so that it’s not all negative. After all, I am a 2000 player. (Right?)
The bag is D EEE K N O R TT U V
I played L3 OA(R) here to give me a shot at (D)IsQUIET to probably win the game. I don’t think QAT can win here, and I might get two shots to fish.
I did get two shots, and I didn’t draw it, but, that’s all right.
Before our game, Rafi was distraught and told me he had just lost 6 in a row. So of course, I knew he would win this game, and he promptly started with two bingos, and then drew both blanks and bingoed two more times. Still, I am proud that I wasn’t tilting and found the best play of (E)YEL(I)NERS here.
In the position above, the bag is ? A DD F G I L NNN OOO S VV Y. I played GE(MO)TE, which I am happy I came up with under time pressure. Anything I do that does not open a lane right now is an immediate loss, and here I’m just hoping he doesn’t have the A. In the end, I was too slow this game and ran out of time and lost a sure win, but that’s okay.
I played (RITZ)INESS here. Kind of a cool play I guess.
In this position, the bag is G I MM OO S T U and he just played (A)RO. I was extremely low on time, but ended up playing N9 ROT(O), blocking GOMUTIS (which he had) and setting up my case E.
Thanks
Thanks for reading this far! And thanks in advance to my super winner friends for helping me to improve. Of course, anyone is welcome to comment on this or any other games or moves. I hope Woogles can host some thoughtful strategy discussions!